Written by: Sam Orlando
STAUNTON, VIRGINIA - The FBI has taken action against Shayne Coplan, the 26-year-old CEO of Polymarket, after the election-betting platform accurately predicted Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2024 presidential election. In an early morning raid on Wednesday, FBI agents entered Coplan’s Manhattan apartment, seizing his phone and other electronic devices. The raid follows just a week after Polymarket projected Trump’s 58.6% odds of winning, contrasting traditional polls which favored Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to a source close to the situation, the raid is seen as politically motivated. “They could have asked his lawyer for any of these things. Instead, they staged a so-called raid so they can leak it to the media and use it for obvious political reasons,” the source told The New York Post. This source believes the raid may be connected to accusations of market manipulation, which some liberal media outlets had previously leveled against Polymarket.
While Coplan was not arrested or charged, the investigation raises questions about whether Polymarket’s high-profile election predictions or its connections to Trump allies like billionaire Peter Thiel, who raised $70 million for the platform, played a role in the government's actions. Speculation has also emerged about a mystery French trader, known as "Théo," who reportedly earned $85 million betting on Trump’s victory.
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Coplan reacted lightheartedly to the FBI’s visit, writing, “New phone, who dis?”
Polymarket’s Legal Troubles
The raid marks the latest in a series of legal challenges for Polymarket. In 2022, the platform was fined $1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating without proper registration. Since then, Polymarket has been restricted from offering its services to U.S. bettors. However, Coplan recently revealed plans to return to the U.S. market, a move that could invite further regulatory scrutiny.
The FBI has yet to officially comment on the nature of the investigation, leaving many to wonder whether the raid is a response to Polymarket’s election predictions or broader concerns about market manipulation.
The Bigger Picture
Polymarket’s rise has drawn attention from regulators worldwide. French authorities are also investigating the platform, particularly its compliance with local gambling laws. Despite the scrutiny, Polymarket maintains that its platform is transparent and that market manipulation is strictly prohibited under its terms of use.
This latest FBI action underscores growing tensions between government authorities and tech-driven financial platforms like Polymarket, especially those involving high-stakes political events. As the investigation unfolds, it remains to be seen whether the raid will lead to further action against Coplan or if it will prompt wider regulatory reforms for prediction markets in the U.S. and abroad.
With Polymarket and its founder under a microscope, the platform's future—and its potential impact on political forecasting—hangs in the balance.
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